The sight of empty egg shelves across American grocery stores has become an increasingly common occurrence in late 2024. A perfect storm of factors, primarily driven by a widespread outbreak of H5N1 bird flu, has created significant disruptions in the nation’s egg supply chain. With 24 million hens affected this year alone, including 5 million since October, shoppers from Denver to Miami are facing limited availability and soaring prices.
Bird flu devastates egg production nationwide
The impact of avian influenza has been particularly severe in California, where 2.5 million egg-laying hens have been lost, representing nearly 40% of nationwide losses. This devastating toll has forced farmers to implement strict biosecurity measures and halt poultry movement from infected areas.
The situation has led to a 2.6% decrease in egg production compared to 2023, creating supply chain bottlenecks that typically resolve within 72 hours but have become more persistent in certain regions. What if this pattern continues? Industry experts suggest the possibility of even more widespread shortages if additional outbreaks occur.
Price surges impact holiday baking plans
The financial impact of this shortage has been significant. Average prices for a dozen large grade A eggs reached $3.36 in the third quarter of 2024, marking a nearly 20% increase from the previous quarter. Some regions have seen prices climb even higher, with September averages hitting $3.82 before slightly declining to $3.37 in October.
Many retailers have implemented purchase limits, restricting customers to one or two cartons per visit. This rationing strategy aims to prevent stockpiling and ensure fair distribution among shoppers, particularly during the holiday baking season.
Relief expected as production rebounds in 2025
There’s hope on the horizon, according to industry projections. The USDA anticipates a significant rebound in egg production, with estimates suggesting a 3% increase in 2025 compared to 2024. This recovery is expected to bring welcome relief to consumers, with prices potentially dropping to an average of $2.30 per dozen.
The anticipated improvement stems from scheduled chick hatches in early 2025 and enhanced biosecurity measures being implemented across farms nationwide. These preventive steps aim to protect future flocks and stabilize the egg supply chain.
Smart shopping strategies during the shortage
While waiting for supplies to normalize, consumers can explore various alternatives. Options include liquid eggs, egg whites, and even plant-based substitutes like aquafaba or silken tofu for baking. Shopping at larger grocery chains might offer better chances of finding eggs in stock.
Early morning shopping trips can increase the likelihood of finding eggs available, as most stores receive deliveries overnight. Additionally, being flexible about brands and types of eggs can help overcome limited availability of specific varieties.
Despite current challenges, experts emphasize that the situation is temporary. The egg industry’s resilience and adaptability, combined with coordinated efforts to rebuild flocks and strengthen biosecurity measures, suggest a more stable egg supply is on the horizon. As we move through this period of adjustment, maintaining perspective and exploring alternatives can help manage the impact of this unprecedented shortage.
